She was elected to office in December 2008 and had been in power since.
On Monday afternoon, Bangladesh army chief general Waker-Uz-Zaman, in military uniform and flanked by the country’s navy and air force chiefs, confirmed that Hasina, 76, had resigned. “We will form an interim government,” he told reporters in Dhaka.
Hasina’s resignation came on the back of protests by students in Bangladesh, with which India shares a 4,096 km border—the longest with any of its neighbours. Mint goes into the details on the latest developments in Bangladesh and the implications for India.
The Freedom movement and the spark behind the protests
The protests were triggered by students seeking the dismantling of quota-based reservations in government jobs. The unrest snowballed after a court ruling in June reinstated reservations in government jobs. The reservations—amounting to more than 50% of all government jobs—were abolished by the Sheikh Hasina government in 2018.
Angering the students was the fact that 30% of those jobs were reserved for the descendants of freedom fighters, i.e., those who had fought in Bangladesh’s 1971 war of independence against Pakistan. They were of the view that quotas favoured allies of the governing Awami League party, which led the independence movement in 1971.
Also read | Now Bangladesh shows the risk posed by unresolved job crises
What infuriated protestors was that the quotas reinstatement happened at a time when the Bangladeshi economy wasn’t doing well. The economy is yet to fully recover from the impact of the covid-19 pandemic. The country’s real GDP, according to the World Bank, had slowed to 5.8% in 2022-23 from 7.1% in 2021-22. With inflation at around 30%, general dissatisfaction has been high. Private sector jobs are hard to come by. Against these odds, government jobs are seen as a stable alternative for those entering the job market.
Similarities between Bangladesh 2024 and Sri Lanka 2022
The developments in Dhaka almost exactly mirrored what happened in Sri Lanka two years ago. In 2022, Sri Lanka was in the throes of what was described as the worst economic crisis since its independence in 1948. Common people in the island nation situated to the south of India, protesting a massive spike in inflation, plunging foreign reserves, and critical shortages of fuel, food and medicine. The situation forced the then Sri Lankan president Gotabhaya Rajapaksa to flee the country. His official residence was ransacked—much in the same manner as Hasina’s official residence in Dhaka was on Monday.
There are deep cultural ties between India and Bangladesh (after all, it was the state of Bengal that was partitioned into East Pakistan and India’s West Bengal in 1947. Bangladesh emerged in 1971 after the dismemberment of Pakistan). Since 2008, when Hasina was elected prime minister, ties have only deepened between the two countries. So what are the implications of Hasina’s departure for India?
Immediate concerns
With news that an aircraft ferrying Hasina out of Bangladesh has landed in India, India will be worried that angry Bangladeshi protestors could target Indians in that country, besides the Indian High Commission and Indian consulates, for allowing the former prime minister permission to land in India.
The depth of anger against Hasina can be gauged from the fact that protestors clambered onto a statue of Sheikh Mujib in Dhaka on Monday and vandalized it.
Since 2009, India has invested a great deal in Bangladesh and its people—money, resources and diplomatic capital. The idea has been to create a constituency favourable to India among the local populace. Visa liberalization allowing more Bangladeshis to visit India for medical tourism and business has been part of this strategy.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chairs a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on the situation in Bangladesh, in New Delhi, on 5 August, after Sheikh Hasina resigned as prime minister of Bangladesh and fled the country. (PTI)
India has also been very supportive of Hasina over decades. In 1975, when most of her family was killed by a group of Bangladeshi army personnel, Hasina and her sister Sheikh Rehana were safely escorted from then West Germany to India. They then lived in New Delhi for almost a decade.
In the latest development, news reports have said that Hasina could seek asylum in the UK, which may help deflect any anger felt by ordinary Bangladeshis against India.
Peaceful periphery
Another immediate concern for India would be the impact of the unrest in Bangladesh on its border states. Any unrest in Bangladesh could spill over into India with repercussions felt in West Bengal, Assam, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura. Many of these states are already considered vulnerable as they have witnessed violent insurgencies.
India has long stressed the need for a peaceful periphery so that it can focus on economic development. This has been a key driving force behind its “Neighborhood First” approach. With India’s borders with Pakistan and China tense, New Delhi would hardly want another border—that with Bangladesh—to be unstable. New Delhi is already keeping a wary eye on the civil unrest in Myanmar and announced fencing of that border.
Security and insurgency worries
Since Hasina was elected Bangladesh’s prime minister in 2008, New Delhi has invested majorly in cultivating ties. In 2015, India ratified a decades-old land boundary pact with Bangladesh, setting ties on a high-growth trajectory. The two countries alsoresolved a maritime boundary dispute.Both were seen as impediments in scaling up ties.
Bangladesh today is the largest recipient of concessional loans from India—almost $8 billion since 2010. Most of this has been used for development projects—building infrastructure, construction of a pipeline to supply diesel—to improve the lives of Bangladeshi people. The two countries in fact had described the present period of bilateral ties as “Sonali Adhyay”, or a “Golden Era” in relations.
According to Indian officials, India’s keenness to partner Bangladesh in its development journey has its roots in Hasina showing sensitivity to India’s security concerns. One of Hasina’s first actions towards India soon after taking office in January 2009 was handing over to India several wanted insurgents belonging to the outlawed United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA).
Also read | Mint Explainer: Why the re-election of Sheikh Hasina was significant for India
Prior to that, ULFA insurgents had set up bases in Bangladesh and used those to launch attacks in India. Subsequently, too, the Hasina government has handed over ULFA members to India.
One of the major reasons attributed to the disbanding of ULFA earlier this year was the return of Hasina as prime minister after polls in January 2024. Indian officials pointed out that Hasina has showed a sensitivity to India’s security concerns not exhibited by previous military or Bangladeshi Nationalist Party (BNP) governments. With Hasina out, New Delhi will be worried about a possible resurgence of insurgencies that have plagued its northeast for decades.
Will the new Bangladesh government be sensitive to Indian concerns?
That will be a question plaguing New Delhi, which has shared very warm ties with Dhaka for more than a decade and a half. According to news reports, the new interim government could be a coalition between the BNP and the Jammat-e-Islami, with the latter seen as espousing radical Islamist ideologies, inimical to Indian interests.
While cultivating ties with Hasina, New Delhi had been in touch with the BNP but not much. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met BNP leader Khaleda Zia during a visit to Bangladesh in 2015. But given the warmer equations with the now ousted Hasina, New Delhi will be watching closely the composition of the new interim government and its implications for Indian security. It could be a new generation of politicians who come in, one with not much recollection of the role India played in Bangladesh’s freedom struggle.
But India has maintained ties with the Bangladeshi armed forces. Former Indian army chief Manoj Pande visited Dhaka last year. Indian naval ships now make regular calls at ports in Bangladesh.
Prosperous Bangladesh key for India’s northeast
This is a long-held view that a stable and economically prosperous Bangladesh is key for India to develop its farflung northeastern region given the geographical location. The northeast is less developed than some of India’s other states. India has been pushing for greater economic integration of this region with Bangladesh as well as countries like Nepal and Bhutan. These have included greater rail, road and energy linkages among Bangladesh, Bhutan, northeast India and Nepal.
Also read | India plans linkage to Bangladesh’s Matarbari port in regional connectivity push
On its part, Bangladesh under Hasina had given India access to Chattogram and Mongla ports for transit and trans-shipment of cargo vessels. The move was welcomed in India as a means of cutting time and costs needed to transport goods to India’s northeastern states and West Bengal. It was also seen as giving a push to regional connectivity in Bay of Bengal. Greater economic prosperity in India’s northeast would help India ensure that suppressed insurgent movements do not re-ignite.
The China-Pakistan factor
One of the reasons for India consolidating ties with Hasina has been China, which is seen as India’s strategic rival. In recent years, Chinese footprint across South Asia—traditionally held as India’s sphere of influence—has grown steadily.
Hasina had been careful not to upset India while seeking financial help from China. On its part, Beijing is known to have close ties with the BNP. Should a BNP-Jammat government take office in Dhaka even in an interim capacity, New Delhi would be watching this turn of events with a wary eye.
On the other hand, Pakistan is believed to have ties with the Jammat, which is a matter of worry for India. Given its tense ties with China and Pakistan, New Delhi can ill afford to see their influence rising in Bangladesh. India has also viewed Bangladesh as a critical link for its Act East policy.
Given its multiple stakes in Bangladesh, New Delhi is expected to adopt a wait-and-watch approach given that the situation is still fluid. But with Hasina out, one thing is certain—New Delhi will have to perforce engage in some amount of reworking of its Bangladesh strategy in the coming days and months.
Elizabeth Roche is associate professor, OP Jindal Global University, Haryana.
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